India's presidency of the G20 comes at a critical time, both for it and for the other G20 countries. It bestows a key leadership role on India on the world stage. However, the stage is strewn with thorns on both the economic and geopolitical fronts. The Bali summit, followed by the Delhi summit, will demonstrate if the world-and the two host countries-can tackle the immediate issues of war and conflict as well as focus attention on the need for financial stability, peace, and sustainable development.

India commenced its year-long presidency of the influential Group of Twenty (G20) nations on December 1, 2022, and public interest in all matters relating to the multilateral economic governance institution has begun to grow. What is this group, how did it gain prominence, and why is India's presidency in 2022-23 so important? The G20 is the premier global forum for dialogue and cooperation on global economic and financial issues. It is over two decades old and holds the attention of experts and students alike for its intricate interaction between the geo-economics and geopolitics of the contemporary world. It is a unique grouping in which developing and developed countries come together with equal status. Understanding its mission, past trajectory, institutional mechanisms, work methods, and the multiplicity of challenges it addresses, is critical today and requires a serious examination.

What is and is not the G20, therefore, is relevant. The G20 is "not a treaty-based multilateral organisation capable of taking legally binding decisions, much less implementing them," says Stewart M Patrick, Director of the International Institutions and Global Governance programmes at the Council on Foreign Relations, New York. "It is a consultative forum that allows the world's most important advanced and emerging economies to harmonize their approaches, when so inclined, to the world's biggest challenges." The G20 today represents 85% of global gross domestic product (GDP), 75% of international trade, and 2/3rd of the world's population." .
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Less than three years after they staged a recovery from the pandemic-induced recession, most major global economies face the risk of heading into another one. You may blame it on China (once a rocking economy, but now on a downhill journey) if you want.

The major economies seem to be heading into a new slump in production, invest ment, and income in 2023. The interna tional agencies-International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) as well as private forecasters agree that global growth will significantly slowdown next year.

The IMF reckons global real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2023 will be just 2.7% after increasing by 6% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022. The World Bank is even more pessimistic, with a forecast of 2.3% for 2023. The bank adds that, in case there was any "financial-market stress," global GDP growth would then slow to 0.5% in 2023-or a 0.4% contraction in per capita terms that would meet the technical definition of a global recession. The OECD forecasters go even lower, with the estimate for global growth in 2023 at just 2.2%, and with global inflation still at an average 6.6% annual rate. As the OECD puts it, "The global economy is facing significant challenges. Growth has lost momentum, and high inflation has broadened out across countries and products, and is proving persistent. Risks are skewed to the downside."

Private sector forecasters take the gloom and doom further. The Institute for International Finance (IIF), a research body funded by major international financial institutions, forecasts an outright recession. "We forecast a global recession in 2023. Adjusted for base effects which are likely around +0.3% next year, global growth will be only +1.3%. That's as weak as 2009. Another "Great Recession."    Full Article ...

Reliance Retail to Take Over Metro Cash & Carry India Operations for 2,850 cr

After a prolonged wait, the much awaited deal finally sees the light of the day. Yes, you guessed it right. Metro AG, the leading German retailer, finally gets a buyer for its India operations. Reliance Retail Ventures Limited, a subsidiary of Mukesh Ambani-helmed Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), has signed definitive agreements to acquire 100% equity stake in METRO Cash & Carry India Pvt. Ltd. ('METRO India') for a total cash consideration of 2,850 cr, subject to closing adjustments, the oil-to-retailing major said in a press release. According to RIL, the acquisition will add uniquely positioned multi-category large format stores to Reliance Retail's store footprint across India and further strengthen its new commerce business. Metro AG, which entered India in 2003, is credited with introducing the concept of cash-and-carry retail store format in the country. It currently operates 31 large format stores across 21 cities and has reach to over 3 million B2B customers in India, of which one million are frequently buying customers, through its store network and eB2B app. METRO India has established itself as a trusted partner for kiranas and other small businesses and merchants. In the financial year 2021/22 (FY ended September 2022), METRO India generated sales of 7,700 cr (€926 mn), its best sales performance since its market entry into India, a statement from RIL said. Through this acquisition, Reliance Retail gets access to a wide network of METRO India stores located in prime locations across key cities, a large base of registered kiranas and other institutional customers, strong supplier network and some of the global best practices implemented by METRO in India. The acquisition will further strengthen Reliance Retail's physical store footprint and ability to better serve consumers and small merchants by leveraging synergies and efficiencies across supply chain networks, technology platforms and sourcing capabilities. Commenting on the deal, Isha Ambani, Director, Reliance Retail Ventures Limited, said, "The acquisition of METRO India aligns with our new commerce strategy of building a unique model of shared prosperity through active collaboration with small merchants and enterprises." She added, "METRO India is a pioneer and key player in the Indian B2B market and has built a solid multi-channel platform delivering strong customer experience. We believe that METRO India's healthy assets combined with our deep understanding of Indian merchant / kirana ecosystem will help offer a differentiated value proposition to small businesses in India."    Full Article ...

The year 2023 could see the demise (or at least an accelerated decline) of ARM as more tech developers switch to RISC-V, robots proliferating like rabbits, AI moving into healthcare aggressively, end of the road for cryptocurrencies, and more companies demanding staff to return to office. Are you ready for the change?

2023 is expected to be an interesting year, though there is a caveat: 'interesting' doesn't necessarily mean a good thing, for, "May you be born in interesting times" is a Chinese curse that may apply here. We have a lot of turmoil going into the New Year. The war in Ukraine is likely to continue well into the year, not through it (though it seems unlikely Russia will be able to sustain the effort). Add to that the continued impact of the pandemic, and the increased risk of a global conflict precipitated by a Chinese attack on Taiwan. We still haven't fully committed to work-from-home practices, and ARM, which forms the basis for much of our technology, is at increased risk of failure as both a platform and a company due to SoftBank's leadership. Against this backdrop, let's take all that uncertainty to craft five predictions for 2023.

Prediction One: The migration from ARM to RISC-V will accelerate
ARM's fight with Qualcomm and what appears to be a severe shortage of operating income coupled with an inferior licensing model has developers moving to RISC-V at what appears to be an increasing rate. SoftBank, ARM's current parent, is under increasing financial pressure as its boss attempts to take the company private in a massive estimated $50 bn effort, and that same boss reportedly owes the firm nearly $5 bn. Add to that the $100 mn write-down for an ill-advised FTX investment (FTX is a crypto exchange that is also in bankruptcy after allegedly mishandling investors' money).    Full Article ...

This is the time of the year when you start crystal gazing to see how markets will perform in 2023. The Indian stock market was a complete exception to global trends in 2022. The Indian benchmark indices (Sensex and Nifty) have hit life-time highs in a year marked by global meltdown. Nifty is up 6% for the year (till December 20) while all other markets including S&P 500, MSCI Emerging market index, etc. went through a tough bear market. India demonstrated efficient Covid management as it did not appear as draconian as in China which enabled broader economy to jump back swiftly. Also, the inward looking Indian economy with not much of export dependency (unlike China) saw to it that the economic engine continues to brim on the back of domestic consumer support. To top this, the strength of retail investors who have now embraced Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) in big measure made sure that the liquidity tap is kept open even in the aftermath of severe pulling out of funds by foreign investors. It is quite possible that these factors can explain the performance of Indian equity markets in 2022. With this background, we can now focus on what is in store for 2023 in terms of expectations.    Full Article ...

The metaverse can be thought of as a collection of shared online worlds in which physical, augmented, and virtual realities converge. To put it more succinctly, it is a continuum that spans the spectrum of digitally enhanced worlds, realities, and business models and creates value for consumers, the workforce, and across different parts of the enterprise such as supply chains and operations, amongst others. The "Metaverse Continuum" will define the next era of digital transformation and revolutionize businesses and the lives of their customers and workforce in the years ahead. While we are in the early days of the metaverse, if companies don't act now, they will operate in a world designed by their competitors, reckons Raghav Narsalay, Managing Director, Accenture Research, and Research Lead for the Metaverse Continuum Business Group.

Value is the heartbeat of any business enterprise. Executives are always on the lookout for new sources of business value. And many are now getting interested in the metaverse because they believe in the value promise it holds. Accenture surveyed more than 4,600 business and technology leaders across 23 industries in 35 countries while penning its Technology Vision for 2022. According to 71% of executives polled, the metaverse will have a positive impact on their organization.

So, what is metaverse?
It's a continuum that spans the spectrum of digitally enhanced worlds, realities, and business models. The metaverse continuum creates value for consumers, the workforce, and across different parts of the enterprise, such as supply chains, and operations, among others. The metaverse is where we can be ourselves, express ourselves, and get together with like-minded people to build and exchange value. Several research reports have been published over the past six months estimating the macroeconomic value to be released by metaverse initiatives undertaken by businesses and governments. Given that this terrain is already covered, this article investigates where the value in the metaverse comes from.    Full Article ...

A major trend going forward could be the emergence of private 5G wireless networks.

Whether you are an investor, worker, executive, or customer, one thing you have to admit is that the wireless and telecommunications industry is an incredibly exciting and fast changing world. It always has been, and it always will be. That being said, in order to continue to win, we must know the path we are on and the direction we are heading. So, let's pull the camera back and take a longer-term historical perspective of where we came from, where we are toda On the other hand, private wireless networks offer increased security and control, which many organizations both want and need. They let users control who get preferential access when the network gets busy, and provide more security and control.

So, private networks are a rapidly growing sector of the industry because they offer more security and control.

Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile, Qualcomm ... competition just heats up in this space There are a variety of ways to build a private wireless network.

One, is through the public wireless carriers. In the United States that means Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile. Increasingly, they are offering a more private experience on their public network. Some MVNO resellers also offer private network services. They include companies like Xfinity Mobile, Spectrum Mobile, Optimum and Cox, among others. Second, there are providers that help other companies build and operate their own private networks. These are companies like Qualcomm, Betacom, Nokia, Ericsson, Huawei, and a growing number of others. In fact, Qualcomm and Betacom have started a partnership, which should let them both see more rapid growth in this area. Third, then there are hybrid networks, where companies stitch together various other networks to create their own private network. Each of these three requires different levels of commitment and control by the organization. 5G to help other industries change and grow    Full Article ...

Nearly a year into the war (and with no sign of ending soon), there is abso- lutely no doubt Russia's (armed) capabilities. The adventure in Ukraine has already resulted in collateral damage for the world, or so suggests the latest global economic data. Projecting a gloomy picture, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its latest review has slashed its outlook for global growth from 4.5% to 3% and doubled its inflation projection (to nearly 9% for its 38 member countries), fearing the fallout from war could only worsen further. As per its estimates, Russia's war in Ukraine (the biggest military conflict on the continent since World War II, as Russia's attempts to redraw the map of Europe by force) will expectedly cost the global economy $2.8 tn in lost output by the end of 2023, and even more, if a severe winter leads to energy rationing in Europe. The OECD's pessimistic outlook only echoes what the World Bank and other international organization have said of the ongoing war between the two warring neighbors. The ripple effects of which can be felt across the globe now. Indeed, Russia's aggression is inciting multiple crises affecting nearly every country in the world. For the world at large, the biggest costs from the conflict come from rising energy and grain costs-$2 tn transfer of wealth from consumers and business energy users to fossil-fuel producers. The war is also increasing the risks of debt distress in low-income countries (about 60% of them are either already in debt stress or at high risk of debt stress) and food insecurity. The war has also led to a massive energy price shock not seen since the 1970s, increasing global energy costs, and an intensified cost of living crisis across much of Europe and the West. This is taking a heavy toll on the world economy, which will worsen if European gas storage runs short.    Full Article ...

If demand remains weak or the market remains oversupplied due to contributions of non-OPEC players in 2023, OPEC would need deeper production cuts which could be difficult to agree upon by the members as that would be akin to willingly giving up their market share.

After nearly a decade of struggle, the oil industry witnessed its best performance in ages with the industry making an extra $2 tn in profits this year. This was largely-driven by a surge in demand due to the excessive economic expansion of 2021 and uncertainty caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The average Brent Crude price stood at $100.7/bbl (year to date) which was last seen before 2014. But this momentum in oil prices peaked in June as the expectation of a global downturn in 2023 weighed on the crude prices. This prompted Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to announce production cuts of 2 million bbls/day in October 2022, though the move failed to prop up the prices.

With multiple uncertainties expected in 2023, OPEC maintained the status quo in their December meeting as further cuts were unlikely to be agreed upon by the members and supply increases were simply not possible.

Demand to remain subdued
As global central banks tighten financial conditions to rein in inflation, the demand outlook for 2023 is expected to be weak. Though OPEC forecasts demand growth of 2.2 million bbls/day, it is unlikely to support prices. As the global 2023 recession unfolds it will provide more visibility on the trajectory of oil prices for the year. During 2008, as expectations of weak oil demand ensuing from the financial crises got anchored the prices collapsed in a free fall. Back then no projections expected such a drastic collapse in the oil and natural gas markets, a similar situation could also happen in 2023 if a    Full Article ...

Australia: Yet Another Rate Hike
Retaining talent has been and will remain a key challenge for enterprises, big or small. And the year 2023 is not going to be any different. In fact, if the recent incidents of tech layoffs and companies' struggles to force employees to return to work are any indication, retaining talent is going to be a lot more challenging than ever for employers going forward.
The beginning of a new calendar year is an excellent time to reflect on the previous twelve months: what went well and what could have been handled more effectively? For an executive, this has to include reflecting on how well they have managed and motivated their employees and worked with their colleagues. Reviewing the level of staff and employee turnover is one way sure-fire indicator of how 'things' have gone.

So the purpose of this article is to highlight some of the reasons employees leave and in doing so, remind managers of what to look out for and identify some of the motivations that caused their employees to look elsewhere for employment. Surveys of employee engagement and exit interview data continue to highlight that many of the reasons given for changing jobs revolve around the quality of the relationship between an employee and their immediate supervisor. It follows that every executive, at whatever level, should prioritize and pay acute attention to how well they are engaging with and supporting their staff and their colleagues.

The cost of replacing staff is high, both in financial and non-financial terms. Financially, there are the costs of recruiting replacements, the fees for search and recruitment agencies, and the loss of workgroup productivity during induction and internal training. Replacement of specialists and highly talented employees in particular will be high, as they will most likely command high salaries and benefit packages due to high competition for such personnel.    Full Article ...

Buying a company in an industry you don't understand with goals that have nothing to do with economic success will virtually always end badly. That's what we're seeing play out with Musk's extremely foolish acquisition of Twitter, writes Rob Enderle, President and Principal Analyst of the Enderle Group, a forward-looking emerging technology advisory firm based in Bend, Oregon, USA.

Crude oil has had a roller-coaster ride in 2022-starting the year at around the current levels of $78 per barrel of Brent and then climbing handsomely to its peak of $127 per barrel by early March fueled, partly, due to economic and political uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The drop precipitous thereafter has been just as dramatic with prices falling nearly 40% from $120/ barrel levels in June to their lowest in the first week of December in the face of a sustained drop in consumption from Western nations. On December 9, Brent crude futures rose to $76 per barrel from a one-year low of $75.70 breached the previous day amid renewed confidence that oil demand from China, the world's largest importer, would remain steady in the coming quarters. Optimism over China's reopening to drive the crude oil recovery rally seems well-founded as the country began scaling back Covid-linked restrictions on travel and economic activity. Sustained demand in the United States and a potentially colder-than-expected winter will further aid the fledgling demand recovery going well into 2023. What lies ahead? The threat of an imminent and profound recession in the eurozone remains a clear and present danger, with Russia's war in Ukraine and the global energy crisis merging into what is now a perfect storm. These twin threats are expected to have a knockdown effect on global crude oil demand, with Q4 2022 slated to witness a steep decline of 1.2 million barrels of oil per day (mm bopd) year-on-year. The saving grace will, hopefully, be delivered by the abrupt re-opening of China, which has, in one stroke, done away with most Covid-related restrictions. This will boost consumption as demand from both personal mobility and economic activity is expected to spike in the period    Full Article ...

Falling crude oil prices coupled with falling interest rates could be a dream Goldilocks scenario for India.

If there is one word that describes the most relevant and highly discussed factor in the global financial markets in 2022, it's "inflation". Markets began the year on a high note, with the global stock indices touching all-time highs. This was in deep contrast with the gloomy economic outlook laid out just a year-and-a-half ago in the wake of a raging pandemic and a historic market crash.

The gloom and doom led by the pandemic in 2020 seemed too far behind as positive news flowed in from all around at the beginning of 2022. As is the case in any worthwhile market boom, analysts predicted only newer market highs for the year. With Covid vaccines in full swing and economies (except China) beginning to put the restrictive practices behind them, these analyst predictions seemed all too accurate. What transpired in 2022? Where is 2023 headed? What are the factors to look out for? This article answers all that and more.    Full Article ...

India does well to tweak its already well-diversified crude oil import basket by adding Russia to it. But will the party last forever?

On December 5, in an unprecedented move, the G7, an elite group of advanced nations, announced imposing a $60 price cap on Russian oil and banning maritime transportation services from shipping crude above that level. The move came in response to the ongoing Russian military aggression against Ukraine and the need to curtail its oil revenues that have been funding its war in Ukraine while limiting global disruptions and hence oil spikes, given that Russia is the third largest oil producer and contributes over 12% of the global oil production. The price cap is primarily intended to prevent firms in signatory countries from providing shipping, insurance, brokering, and other services to Russian crude oil shipments that are sold at any price higher than the designated price of the current $60 per barrel. However, the cap will only apply to shipments that are "loaded" onto vessels after the said deadline and hence will not apply to shipments in transit. The G7 price mechanism also allows a 45-day transition period for vessels carrying Russian crude loaded before December 5 and unloaded at the final port of destination by January 19, 2023.    Full Article ...

Rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing tariff wars among major economies raise serious concerns about the future of globalization.

Much debate and analysis have taken place, especially since the 2008 credit crunch, over the issue of whether the era of globalization is finally coming to an end. But before dwelling on the topic further, it is important to understand what globalization is. This is a term used differently in different contexts. To put it simply, globalization is defined as the process of integration and interaction among companies, people, and governments across the world. It shows how trade and technology have made the world more connected and interdependent. It also depicts the economic and social changes that have occurred in the economy. Globalization has led to free trade and the interdependence of nations across the globe. So, if globalization has brought so many positive changes to the world, why is it now being opposed in some quarters?

What has gone wrong?
According to a section of researchers, the developments over the past 30 years have paved the way for the growth of what many refer to as 'regionalization.' For example, global trade slowed down even before the Covid crisis. In fact, just to recap, already after the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), merchandise trade had slowed down and was unable to reach the previous trend of growth. In the aftermath of 2008, evidence that de-globalization is in the making has only grown. Let us have a look at some of these developments:    Full Article ...

The residential real estate sector in India performed quite well in 2022, although commercial real estate, after performing well in the first half of the year, had some anxious moments towards the end of the year owing to a challenging macro environment. So, what lies in store for the sector as a whole as we enter 2023?

Residential real estate
Housing sales remained upbeat throughout 2022, and the current sales momentum will sustain at least in the first quarter of 2023. Thereafter, much will depend on forces other than the desire for home ownership, such as additional repo rate hikes and property price increases. Year 2022 saw the repo rate go up by almost 225 bps, and home loan interest rates lost no time in going up concurrently.

So far, the rate hikes have had only a marginal impact on residential absorption. While more affordable housing buyers stepped back from purchase decisions, mid-income and luxury home sales were not markedly affected. However, there is a tolerance limit even to the most upbeat sentiment. Readings from ANAROCK's most recent Consumer Sentiment Survey indicated that if home loan interest rates rise above the 9.5% mark, we can expect to see considerable housing demand contraction. Year 2023 will continue to witness controlled new launches in most of the top cities. The launch trend in 2022 was calculated caution, with developers refraining from putting more inventory on the market than it could reasonably absorb-especially in already abundantly supplied markets. To illustrate, NCR-a market once notorious for chronic oversupply- saw restricted new supply, which played a major role in reducing unsold inventory there. Since this cautious approach worked well in 2022, it will certainly continue in 2023.    Full Article ...